Maintenance Mindset: 5 metrics to help manufacturers navigate economic uncertainty

Welcome to Maintenance Mindset, our editors’ takes on things going on in the worlds of manufacturing and asset management that deserve some extra attention. This will appear regularly in the Member’s Only section of the site.

If I had to predict the word that will best capture 2025, my guess would certainly be: "uncertainty". Merriam-Webster’s 2024 word of the year was "polarization", also "demure", "fortnight" (thanks to Taylor Swift), and "weird" (thanks Tim Walz). But this year, all we can seem to talk about so far is uncertainty.

It’s a continued theme of the Trump administration, with the President ramping uncertainty up and down with frequent tariff talks. He’s taken some recent actions that could have broad implications for manufacturing, but right now everyone is still waiting to see how it all shakes out. Yes, we’re still uncertain.

Economic uncertainty is never good for business. Financial planning is a meticulous sport, part data-based and part prediction, so any uncertainty can muck up the equations, evaluation and important analysis. With so much global economic uncertainty, how do you find any certainty from which to make sound decisions?

No one has all the answers, but industry does have access to quite a bit of economic data from the U.S. federal government and other institutions, and it can tell us a lot about U.S. manufacturing performance. I’ve highlighted five important metrics here that I’ll be keeping an eye on. I’ve also explained what the data covers, how often it’s updated, why it matters to manufacturing, and what to make of the most recent data. I’ll also draw some conclusions for operations and maintenance and reliability teams.

The quick takeaway: as uncertainty suggests, U.S. manufacturing production is hesitant, somewhat underutilizing its capacity, and keeping an eye on inventory management.

Source: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI)

Data: This survey of more than 800 manufacturing supply and purchasing executives across the country shows a monthly index for industry growth (>50%) or contraction (<50%).
Frequency: released the 1st of every month, reporting on previous month
Why it matters: This is widely regarded as a leading indicator of manufacturing activity and overall economic health. In addition to capturing a snapshot of the manufacturing industry as a whole, it can offer early insight into trends in new orders, employment, and production. 
Most recent data summary: The March ISM, released April 1, registered 49%, 1.3 percentage points lower compared to February.
Current takeaway: ISM has been below 50 for several months, which signals ongoing contraction, but some analysis suggests that we may be reaching a possible bottoming out on the manufacturing downturn, as key sub-indices like new orders and production are showing modest improvement.

Source: Federal Reserve industrial production index

Data: Covering manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities, the index is a measure of real U.S. factory output, based on many sources recording production output measured in physical units and data on inputs to the production process. Some data comes from industry associations and other government agencies, and some are calculated from other industry indexes and data.
Frequency: released monthly, around the middle of the month
Why it matters: This index shows month-over-month and year-over-year growth or decline in U.S. production and helps understand trends in capacity utilization and production volumes.
Most recent data summary: In February 2025, output increased by 0.9%, bolstered by an 8.5% surge in motor vehicles and parts production. In March, industrial production decreased 0.3%, led by a 5.8% drop in the index for utilities due to warmer weather. The indices for manufacturing and mining grew 0.3% and 0.6%.
Key takeaway: Manufacturing output is not in free fall, but may be stagnant. Certain high-capex sectors (like automotive and machinery) are experiencing more volatility, possibly due to inventory adjustment and weak demand. Manufacturing did continue to see a slight increase in March, but these numbers don’t indicate significant production increases, as we continue to watch tariff talks.

Source: Federal Reserve manufacturing capacity utilization rate

Data: Also covering manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities, the capacity utilization rate shows the percent of manufacturing capacity currently in use. 
Frequency: released together with the industrial production index monthly, around the middle of the month
Why it matters: This percentage rate can indicate industrial resource use, demand pressure, and production slack. A low utilization percentage may indicate underuse of resources, while high utilization rates suggest strong demand (but also a potential risk of supply chain bottlenecks).
Most recent data summary: In February 2025, the capacity utilization for manufacturing was 78.3%, reflecting an increase of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. In March, capacity utilization stepped down to 77.8%, a rate that is 1.8% points below its long-run (1972–2024) average.
Key takeaway: The industry is not operating near full capacity, which could discourage capital investment, but it could also mean room for future growth without immediate supply chain bottlenecks.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau new orders manufactured durable goods, and shipments and inventories

Data: Reports monthly data on new orders for durable goods placed with manufacturers. Durable goods are products expected to last three or more years, such as automotive and transportation equipment, machinery and equipment, electronics and appliances and defense and aerospace. 
Frequency: Monthly report, available around the 18th working day of each month
Why it matters: Manufacturing orders for durable goods can signal future manufacturing output or demand for capital equipment.
Most recent data: New orders for manufactured durable goods in February, up two consecutive months, increased $2.7 billion or 0.9 percent to $289.3 billion. 
Key takeaways: Recent month-over-month growth in new orders for durable goods suggest that demand is holding steady. Shipment data (or the actual delivery of goods) is saying something slightly different with moderate rebounds, but lagging behind order increases. This could suggest tighter management on inventories from potential overproduction from uncertain demand. Manufacturers may need to fine-tune production scheduling and inventory management practices.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau new order for total manufacturing, including non-durable goods 

Data: Reports monthly data on new orders for total manufacturing, including durable and non-durable goods. 
Frequency: Released monthly, 26 working days into the month
Why it matters: Like it’s sister stat above, manufacturing orders for durable  and non-durable goods can signal future manufacturing output or demand for capital equipment. Non-durable goods, by definition, are consumed or used quickly (in less than three years). Think of your typical necessities, like food, clothing, chemical and paper products; they are consumed regularly, so generally that market is more stable than durable goods. Durable and non-durable goods new orders data together give a more complete view of current economic activity, and durable goods data could point more specifically to capital investments and long-term confidence.
Most recent data: In total, new orders for manufactured goods in February, up two consecutive months, increased $3.6 billion or 0.6 percent to $594.0 billion.
Key takeaways: Total manufacturing orders show modest growth, indicating a stable but cautious market. The slow in non-durable goods indicates steady consumer demand in everyday/personal care products, and slow durable goods growth can indicate slow business investment.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau manufacturing and trade inventories and sales 

Data: The report shows import and export values by industry. The estimates in this report are based on data from three surveys: the Monthly Retail Trade Survey, the Monthly Wholesale Trade Survey, and the Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories and orders survey. This data also includes the inventory-to-sales ratio, where a rising number indicates inventories are growing faster than sales. 
Frequency: Released monthly about six weeks after the close of the reference month
Why it matters: These data can indicate global demand and the impact of trade policy, where there is particular uncertainty right now. International trade levels help track global competitiveness and demand for U.S.-made goods. The inventory vs. sales data can signal the demand environment. The inventory-to-sales ratio can help indicate to manufacturers whether or not to ramp up production or tighten inventory levels.
Most recent data: The combined value or distributive trade sales (wholesalers or retailers that buy and sell other companies’ products) and manufacturers’ shipments for February was estimated at $1,921.1 billion, up 1.2% from January 2025 and up 3.6% from February 2024. Manufacturer and trade inventories for February were estimated at $2,590.0 billion, up 0.2 percent from January 2025 and up 2.1 percent from February 2024. 
Key takeaways: Export data shows softness in global demand, especially in Europe and China. Inventories have grown at a slightly faster pace than sales, signaling that in February manufacturers are accumulating some inventory. If this trend continues, it could mean consumer demand is softening, or companies are hedging against supply chain uncertainties. Sales are rising but perhaps not quickly enough to prevent a rising inventory-to-sales ratio.

How could current market conditions affect maintenance and operations?

Recent data from the Fed show that manufacturing capacity utilization is below its long-term average, so many production lines are not running at full capacity. Manufacturing output is slow but not sluggish, and capacity is lagging. For maintenance managers, these periods of lower capacity could be used to schedule routine maintenance and preventive repairs. Additional downtime also can be scheduled during these lulls, so equipment is ready to go when demand picks up, and production lines won’t get bogged down by needed repairs in the future.

As an early indicator for manufacturing activity, if the ISM PMI number is hovering near or below the expansion threshold (50), it can tell manufacturers to be cautious about long-term spending or capital equipment investment. We saw a slight increase in manufacturing activity in January and February, but that quickly receded in March in the wake of tariff talks.

The U.S. Census Bureau manufacturing production index shows modest growth, but durable goods orders have been more volatile. Those durable goods orders (again, we’re talking products that last more than three years) are in part tied to business investment. This could also indicate that equipment upgrades and infrastructure investment are on hold. Without equipment investment dollars available, maintenance becomes even more important. With production capacity not fully maximized, managers can afford a more flexible production schedule and time for maintenance and repairs without major upgrade project in the way.

The Census data on manufacturing trade inventories and sales indicate increasing inventories, which could lead to overstocking or capital being tied-up in parts and finished goods inventories. Lean inventory practices might before more important in the future, especially as we watch the data for March, given the current trade climate.

I’ll keep an eye on the monthly data. While I can’t offer certainty in uncertain times, these numbers give us an educated glimpse into the current market conditions. I’ve only melted the tip of the iceberg here and I’ll continue to deep dive into this data and others each month.